Forecast: 25GS-PON Will Expand PON’s Role Beyond Residences

Network operators are beginning to selectively deploy 25 GS-PON — so much so that Dell’Oro Group raised its 25 GS-PON forecast for the technology. 25GS-PON is the acronym for 25 Gigabit Symmetrical Passive Optical Network.

The trend is significant. Dell’Oro has raised its revenue projection for 25GS-PON for the period between last year and 2025 from $315 million to $588 million worldwide, with North America and Western Europe leading the way.

While Dell’Oro Group’s forecast for XGS-PON technology supporting speeds of 10 Gbps is much higher — $7.7 billion during the same period — 25GS-PON is finding its niche, notes Dell’Oro Group Vice President Jeff Heynen in a blog post.

25GS-PON Forecast

Driving these deployments is service providers’ move toward using 25GS-PON to support high-end residential services, enterprises, campus environments, access network aggregation, and wholesale connections.

“That is the relatively modest strategy behind 25GS-PON: To finally expand the applicability of PON technologies beyond residential networks,” Heynen wrote in the blog post about the 25GS-PON forecast. “Though it has been discussed by vendors and operators for years, we are finally seeing that many operators have earmarked PON as a network-flattening technology across their residential, enterprise, mobile transport, and wholesale networks.”

By deploying both XGS-PON and 25GS-PON, providers can gain the flexibility they need to address a wide range of customers and applications over shared infrastructure, Heynen observes.

Heynen also notes that the ITU has determined that 50G PON is the next-generation technology. However, bandwidth demand may drive service providers to look for options before 50 GPON goes through the traditional process of full standardization, testing and being brought to market.

The reality is that operators need to meet challenges in the shorter term, and large carriers – Heynen mentions AT&T and Comcast — have become more comfortable using organizations such as ONF and the Broadband Forum in tandem with their own internal technology and product development engineering teams to drive standards.

It’s all very complex and fluid, of course. Heynen maintains that at the highest level, there is a consensus around a strategy that focuses on GPON and XGS-PON for FTTH deployment and 25GS-PON using the same equipment and optical distribution networks (ODNs) where “it makes strategic sense.”


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