According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), electricity generation by the U.S. electric power sector totaled about 4,260 billion kilowatthours (BkWh) in 2025. In its latest “Short-Term Energy Outlook” (STEO), the EIA said that it expects U.S. electricity generation to grow by 1.1 percent in 2026 and by 2.6 percent in 2027, when it reaches an annual total of 4,423 BkWh.

According to the STEO, the three main dispatchable sources of electricity generation (natural gas, coal, and nuclear) accounted for 75 percent of total generation in 2025, but it expects the share of generation from these sources to fall to about 72 percent in 2027.

Natural gas is the largest source of electricity in the United States. However, its contribution to total generation has been declining from a peak share of 42 percent in 2024. In its forecast, the EIA believes that U.S. natural gas-fired generation will total 1,696 BkWh in 2026, about the same as in 2025, and then increases to 1,711 BkWh in 2027 as overall power demand increases. The EIA noted that increase in natural gas-fired generation is slower than the overall increase in total U.S. generation, and so natural gas’s share of total power generation is expected to fall to 39 percent in 2027 compared to 40 percent in 2025.

The EIA also noted that U.S. generation fueled by coal increased by 13 percent in 2025 to 731 BkWh, due to cold temperatures in some regions and because of relatively higher natural gas prices. “With existing policies and scheduled retirements planned by plant operators, we expect that coal plant retirements will lead to U.S. coal-fired generation declining an average of 5% annually over the next two years, producing 661 BkWh in 2027,” said the EIA. The share of coal in power generation would then fall to 15 percent in 2027 from 17 percent in 2025.

The EIA also expects the combined share of generation from solar power and wind power to rise from about 18 percent in 2025 to about 21 percent in 2027.

“In our STEO forecast, utility-scale solar is the fastest-growing source of electricity generation in the United States, increasing from 290 BkWh in 2025 to 424 BkWh by 2027,” said the EIA. “Almost 70 gigawatts (GW) of new solar generating capacity projects are scheduled to come online in 2026 and 2027, which represents a 49% increase in U.S. solar operating capacity compared with the end of 2025.”

Increasing amounts of battery storage capacity help to support the fluctuations in solar output during the day. According to the STEO, the electric power sector plans to expand battery capacity in ERCOT from about 15 GW in 2025 to 37 GW by the end of 2027.

Wind generation has been traditionally concentrated in the central part of the country, such as in the grid operated in the Midwest by the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO). “However, additions of new wind generating capacity have slowed in MISO, and we expect little growth in MISO wind generation through 2027, averaging just over 100 BkWh annually,” said the EIA.