According to a new report from Wood Mackenzie and the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA), the U.S. solar industry installed nearly 18 gigawatts (GW) of new capacity in the first half of 2025. Even as the current administration rolled out a series of new energy policies, solar and storage still accounted for 82 percent of all new power added to the grid in its first six months.

The administration’s actions have significantly reduced solar deployment forecasts. The low-case forecast in the “U.S. Solar Market Insight” Q3 2025 report from the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and Wood Mackenzie warns that these policies put the United States at risk of losing 44 GW of solar deployment by 2030, an 18 percent decline. When comparing this forecast to earlier forecasts (before the current administration took office), the U.S. is at risk of losing a total of 55 GW of solar deployment by 2030, a 21 percent decline.

“Solar and storage are the backbone of America’s energy future, delivering the majority of new power to the grid at the lowest cost to families and businesses,” said SEIA president and CEO Abigail Ross Hopper. “But no matter what policies this administration releases, the solar and storage industry will continue to grow, because the market is demanding what we’re delivering: reliable, affordable, American-made energy.”

The United States added 13 GW of new solar module manufacturing capacity in the first half of 2025 with new or expanded factories in Texas, Indiana and Minnesota. Today the U.S. has 55 GW of total solar module manufacturing capacity. However, there was no new upstream manufacturing investment in Q2 as federal policies threaten to stall U.S. solar manufacturing momentum and risk billions of dollars of private capital.

The report shows that solar deployment is expected to be four percent lower than the earlier base case by 2030. Near-term deployment is bolstered by projects already underway, a rush to meet tax credit deadlines, and rising demand for power, as new gas generation becomes more expensive and less available.

The low case forecast details how recent executive actions could damage the industry, including the Department of the Interior’s (DOI) order that singles out solar for more obstructive permitting treatment. According to the report, DOI’s actions are expected to impact roughly 44 GW of planned solar capacity, with Arizona, California, and Nevada most affected.

“There is considerable downside risk for the solar industry if the federal permitting environment creates more constraints for solar projects,” said Michelle Davis, head of solar research at Wood Mackenzie. “Further uncertainty from federal policy actions is making the business environment for the solar industry incredibly challenging.”

Last week, SEIA released a grid reliability policy agenda that outlines the critical actions that local, state, and federal leaders must take to strengthen the reliability of America’s electric grid with solar and storage technologies and meet growing demand.