In its latest “Short Term Energy Outlook” (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that U.S. renewable capacity additions, especially solar, will continue to drive the growth of U.S. power generation over the next two years. “We expect U.S. utilities and independent power producers will add 26 gigawatts (GW) of solar capacity to the U.S. electric power sector in 2025 and 22 GW in 2026,” said the report.

Last year, the electric power sector added a record 37 GW of solar power capacity to the electric power sector, almost double 2023 solar capacity additions. EIA forecasts that wind capacity additions will increase by around 8 GW in 2025 and 9 GW in 2026, slight increases from the 7 GW added in 2024.

In contrast to solar and wind, generating capacity for most other energy sources will remain mostly unchanged in 2025 and 2026. Natural gas-fired capacity growth slowed in 2024, with only one GW of capacity added to the power mix, but natural gas remains the largest source of U.S. power generation.

“We forecast U.S. coal retirements will accelerate, removing six percent (11 GW) of coal generating capacity from the U.S. electricity sector in 2025 and removing another two percent (four GW) in 2026,” said the EIA report. Last year, coal retirements represented about three GW of electric power capacity removed from the power system, which is the lowest annual amount of coal capacity retired since 2011.

The report also expects that planned renewable capacity additions will support most of the growth in U.S. electric power generation, which it expects will increase by two percent in 2025 and by one percent in 2026.

The U.S. electric power sector produced a total of 4,155 billion kilowatthours (kWh) of electricity in 2024, up three percent from 2023.

Natural gas: In 2024, U.S. natural gas-fired power plants generated a total of 1,767 billion kWh, four percent more than in 2023. Natural gas-fired power accounted for around 42 percent of the U.S. electricity mix, mostly unchanged compared with 2023. “We expect natural gas generation will decline in 2025 by three percent, to 1,712 billion kWh, and decrease a further one percent, to 1,692 billion kWh in 2026,” said the EIA.

Renewables: The report expects renewable power generation will increase 12 percent in the United States, to 1,058 billion kWh in 2025, and increase a further eight, to 1,138 billion kWh, in 2026. Renewable sources were the second-largest contributor to U.S. power generation in 2024 and accounted for 945 billion kWh, up nine percent from 2023.

Nuclear: The EIA expects U.S. nuclear power generation to grow two percent to 796 billion kWh in 2025 and increase a further one percent to 800 billion kWh in 2026. Nuclear power generation in 2024 was up slightly from 2023, totaling 781 billion kWh. “Increased nuclear generation in the forecast is partly due to the addition of the two Vogtle power plant units that began commercial operations in July 2023 and April 2024, as well as the expected restart of the Palisades power plant in October 2025,” said the report.

Coal: The EIA expects U.S. coal power generation to remain unchanged at around 640 billion kWh in 2025 and 2026. Coal electricity generation was 647 billion kWh in 2024.