Smart locks will reach sales of almost 26 million units in 2023, creating an annual smart lock market of $2.4 billion according to a smart lock market forecast from Strategy Analytics.

The report says that the category will enjoy a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19% for the length of the forecast period. Sales will climb from 3.8 million units in 2014 to 11.1 million this year, 19.4 million in 2021 and 25.7 million by 2023.

Smart Lock Market Forecast

Companies in the sector – which include August, Chamberlain, Danalock, Kwikset, Schlage and Yale — will need to evolve as the smart door lock and garage door opener markets move from early adopters to mass market status, the researchers caution.

“Smart locks are important devices as consumers’ utilization of smart home technology increases,” Bill Ablondi, Director, the Strategy Analytics’ Smart Home Strategies research service, said in a press release. “However, the strategies that have fueled the success of Kwikset, Schlage, Yale, August, and others are providing a template for Amazon and Google to create their own offerings. Smart lock companies and platform providers are collaborating now, but Amazon or Google will likely become competitors in the near future.”

The U.S., due to its higher percentage of single family homes and greater interest in “smart” automation and security services, will be the key market. The category will face challenges in other markets, according to the report. For instance, climate control is more important in western Europe, which leaves smart access out of smart home platforms from SK Telecom, Korea Telecom and LG U-Plus. Also, multi-dwelling units typically have shared entries with commercial grade electronic lock systems. Smart locks are popular in China, but the category is dominated by local brands such as Alibaba.