Ericsson is predicting vast growth in mobile network data traffic, with the expectation that 5G will handle most of that traffic by 2030. This analysis is part of the November 2024 edition of the “Ericsson Mobility Report,” which widens the forecast period through 2030.

Even though the growth rate of mobile network data traffic is slowing, Ericsson said it still is expected to increase nearly 200% between now and year-end 2030.

By the end of 2030, the firm projects, 5G networks will move approximately 80% of all global mobile data traffic, compared with an estimated 34% of all traffic by year-end 2024.

The Ericsson Mobility Report also projects global 5G subscriptions to reach nearly 2.3 billion by the end of 2024, which would comprise one-fourth of all global mobile subscriptions. The number of 5G subscriptions will likely overtake the number of global 4G subscriptions during 2027.

What’s more, of the 6.3 billion global 5G subscriptions forecast to be in place by the end of 2030, as much as 60% are expected to be 5G Standalone.

Communications service providers will be focused on 5G Standalone and 5G Advanced for the next five years, as they build offerings based, not on data volume, but on value delivery.

“Early-mover service providers are already offering value delivery models based on differentiated connectivity — guaranteed uninterrupted high-end connectivity when you need it most — to create new monetization and growth opportunities,” the report said.

Less than 20% of the approximately 320 service providers currently offering commercial 5G services are 5G Standalone. Ericsson said that capitalizing on the full potential of 5G, including its programmable and intelligent network capabilities, will be enabled by the densification of mid-band and 5G Standalone sites.

Additional analysis in the Ericsson Mobility Report centers on fixed wireless access (FWA). Gains in FWA globally have made it the second-largest 5G use case following enhanced mobile broadband. By the end of 2030, global FWA connections will reach 350 million, with approximately 80% over 5G, Ericsson projects.

The report also touches on artificial intelligence (AI), particularly Generative AI applications. Because it is already integrated in devices such as smartphones, laptops, watches, and FWA products, AI could impact uplink and downlink network traffic, perhaps boosting mobile traffic growth beyond predictions.