IDTechEx predicts that global revenue from roboshuttles and autonomous buses will exceed $67 billion by 2044.

In their recent report —  “Roboshuttles and Autonomous Buses 2024-2044: Technologies, Trends, Forecasts” — IDTechEx describes the level of autonomy these vehicles have. Autonomy is graded on a 0 to 5 scale, with 5 being completely driverless. That is the long-term goal of the industry, but in the shorter term it is aiming at level 4, which is the use of driverless operations in a specific area.

Roboshuttles can accommodate 22 passengers, which includes extra riders due to the absence of a driver. These vehicles are four to six meters (about 13 to 20 feet) in length.

The report indicates that it is an industry segment in transition. Indeed, IDTechEx says that the number of players has been reduced by half — from more than 25 to 12 — since 2020. Most of the surviving companies are still in the early stages of development as of 2023.

The report says that, during the second quarter of this year, seven of the 11 companies in the roboshuttle sector were manufacturers, with three companies in China involved in large-scale testing that had gone on for two years.

Autonomous buses come in mini, midi, and city bus sizes. Bus-sized carriers can accommodate about 100 people, which means that fewer will be needed within a specific area.

The press release on the report concludes by saying that the sector will develop “somewhat slowly” due to a lack of funding and regulatory issues. The firm’s expectation is that there will be an expansion of trials of roboshuttles with safety operators on board. By 2030, the report says, these vehicles will operate without safety operators.

Commercial trials will be conducted by 2030, with driverless operations across specific routes expected five years later.