A new report from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), titled “The 2026 Summer Energy Market and Electric Reliability Assessment,” provides FERC’s reliability outlook for June through September 2026. The report contains five sections: a summary of key findings, anticipated weather and weather-related risks, notable reliability risks for the summer, energy market fundamentals, and regional electric reliability probabilistic assessments.

The key findings of the report are that:

• High temperatures and extreme weather events are expected to challenge the electric grid.

• Drought and low snowpack could curb hydropower generation.

• Wildfires and hurricanes may affect some parts of the country.

• Projected generation and transmission additions will help address forecasted high electricity demand growth.

• Natural gas demand and production are both expected to increase.

• Resources and operating reserves are adequate in all NERC assessment areas under normal operating conditions.

• Possible reliability challenges could exist in NPCC-NE, western ERCOT, and WECC-NW under extreme operating conditions.

Forecasted higher-than-average summer temperatures and uncertainty from extreme weather events are expected to challenge the electric grid this summer. “Addressing those stressors may be difficult because several weather conditions build off each other, namely low snowpack, continued drought, and wildfires,” said the report. The resulting low water levels are also expected to restrict hydropower generation in key regions.

As to market fundamentals, electricity consumption is expected to be higher in summer 2026 than in each of the previous five summers. “However, new generator additions and transmission line expansions are expected to help address increased electricity demand,” noted the report. Also, natural gas demand is forecast to increase this summer compared to the previous five summers, while electricity generation is expected to continue to make up the largest share of total natural gas demand.

Wholesale electricity prices are expected to vary by region this summer, with the highest prices expected in the Mid-Atlantic (PJM Interconnection LLC), New York (New York Independent System Operator), and New England (ISO New England). “Compared to last summer, natural gas prices are also expected to increase at major eastern trading hubs, but decrease at most western and midcontinent trading hubs,” said the report.

The FERC report went on to say: Based on data provided by the assessment areas, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) has conducted probabilistic assessments that indicate possible challenges this summer for the electric grid. Under normal operating conditions, according to NERC, all assessment areas are expected to have adequate generating resources to meet expected summer electricity demand and operating reserve requirements.

However, under extreme weather conditions, three assessment areas face a higher likelihood of tight generation availability in a range of operating scenarios: the Northeast Power Coordinating Council-New England (NPCC-NE), the western part of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), and the Western Energy Coordinating Council – Northwest (WECC-NW).

These operating scenarios include: 1) higher peak load levels, 2) reduced resources conditions, and 3) wide-area extreme weather conditions that may disrupt available transfer and generator availability.

If these scenarios occur, operational mitigation may be needed to avoid facing reliability issues, said the FERC report.