Carriers have a shrinking runway to prepare for quantum, and a new Bain & Company analysis says the clock is already running. The firm argued that quantum poses an immediate challenge for telecom carriers, with implications spanning network security, infrastructure strategy, and regulation — and that they have until 2030 to prepare.

Quantum can be broken down into four areas: post-quantum cryptography, quantum computing, quantum communications, and quantum sensing. The analysis said the first three are the most urgent for telecom, warning that treating them as a single problem can drive carriers toward either premature spending or a false sense of security concerning cryptography, the one quantum domain where the threat is no longer hypothetical.

As such, post-quantum cryptography was identified as the most pressing priority. Although quantum computers powerful enough to break today’s encryption do not yet exist, the report noted that nation-state actors are already stockpiling encrypted data with the expectation of decrypting it once sufficiently powerful quantum hardware exists. For carriers, that exposed information could remain sensitive for decades.

According to the quantum report, every cryptographic dependency across a telecom carrier’s estate — including the 5G core, radio access network, transport, and subscriber identity systems — must be identified and migrated, a discovery process that could take 12 to 24 months. Regulatory deadlines are also hardening, with the European Commission pushing critical infrastructure sectors toward readiness by the end of 2030.

Quantum computing warrants a more selective posture. The technology is converging toward a threshold of roughly 100 stable logical qubits, which some expect around 2028 to 2029, but building internal capabilities takes three to four years. Telecom provider Vodafone, working with ORCA Computing, has already demonstrated quantum-assisted fiber routing.

The report said that since telecom carriers own the fiber, they hold a structural edge in quantum communications. The analysis pointed to quantum key distribution deployments by BT and Toshiba in London, SK Telecom in South Korea, and Orange in France. However, it cautioned that fiber-based systems remain limited to about 100 kilometers without trusted relays.

By the end of last year, the report said, 35 telecom carriers worldwide had active quantum programs.